VALUE ALPHA · VALUATION MEMO · ENGAGEMENT REF · VA-26-0530 CONFIDENTIAL

VA · NWCH · NAICS 236118

NWCH

Northwind Custom Homes

VA · VA RANGE AS OF MAY 30 2026
Engine Suite · DCF · Precedent Confidence 81%

§ 01Company Snapshot

What the business is, in one paragraph.

Residential custom-home builder and remodeler, established 2009. Primary and second-home clientele across a Mountain West resort region. Operates from a single owned office and shop.

Industry
NAICS 236118 · Residential Remodelers
Business Type
B2B
Revenue Model
Service
Recurrence
Project-based
Delivery
Service · Field
Geography
United States · Mountain West

§ 02Football Field

Per-engine value ranges, blended into the headline VA Range.

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VALUE ALPHA · NORTHWIND CUSTOM HOMES · VALUATION MEMO MAY 30 2026

§ 03DCF

Five-year free-cash-flow projection at the stated WACC.

DCF projects unlevered free cash flow over five years, discounts to present value at the stated WACC, and adds a terminal value computed by the Gordon Growth method. Result is enterprise value; net debt is subtracted to derive equity value.

Growth · Y1
3.0%
EBITDA Margin
25.3%
WACC
18.0%
Terminal Growth
2.5%
DCF · enterprise to equity value
Line itemValue
PV of forecast FCF$3.9M
PV of terminal value$3.9M
Enterprise value$7.8M
Less: net debt($1.0M)
Equity value$8.8M

DCF range across sensitivity bands: $6.5M to $11.5M.

§ 04Operating Performance

Revenue, costs, and EBITDA margin · 2023 – 2030.

$10M$7.5M $5M$2.5M$0 35%26% 18%9%0% 2023 HIST2024 HIST 2025 HIST2026 F 2027 F2028 F 2029 F2030 F
Source: company financials FY 2023–25; engine forecast FY 2026–30.
Forecast · base case · 2026 – 2030
Metric 20262027 20282029 2030
Revenue$6.2M$6.4M$6.6M$6.8M$7.0M
Growth3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%
EBITDA margin25.3%25.3%25.3%25.3%25.3%
EBITDA$1.6M$1.6M$1.7M$1.7M$1.8M
Costs$4.6M$4.8M$4.9M$5.1M$5.2M
Free cash flow$1.2M$1.2M$1.3M$1.3M$1.3M
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§ 05Comparable Companies

Engine excluded from this engagement.

Zero peers met the inclusion threshold (≥50% NAICS overlap, revenue within ±2× of the subject, public reporting within 18 months). The Comparable Companies engine was excluded from the blend; weight was redistributed to DCF and Precedent. Engine returns to scope when the next VA Index sector slice (236118 · Residential Remodelers) publishes on the first Tuesday of June.

§ 06Precedent Transactions

Six private-market deals; median multiple applied.

Median EV/EBITDA across six recent deals in NAICS 236118 and adjacent residential-builder codes: 5.4×. Applied to current-year EBITDA of $1.5M, this produces an implied enterprise value of $6.6M, before applying the standard 12% liquidity discount.

Recent comparable transactions
TargetAcquirer EV / RevEV / EBITDA DateSource
Lead-generation contractorPrivate1.1×3.7×2026-04-26Marketplace
Luxury waterfront builderPrivate1.8×4.8×2026-04-26Marketplace
Lead-generation contractorPrivate1.1×3.7×2026-05-03Marketplace
Luxury waterfront builderPrivate1.8×5.8×2026-05-03Marketplace
Residential builder · TXRegional group1.1×10.4×2025-01-10Third-party
Energy-efficient builder · 15yrPrivate0.4×2026-04-28Marketplace

§ 07Methodology

Engine weights and rationale.

Engines are weighted by data quality, peer availability, and industry fit. The blended midpoint is the weighted average of each engine's midpoint estimate.

Engine weights · this engagement
MethodologyWeightImplied valueNote
Discounted Cash Flow57.1%$8.8M5-year projection · WACC 18.0% · TGR 2.5%
Precedent Transactions42.9%$6.4MMedian 5.4× EV/EBITDA across six deals
Blended enterprise value100.0%$6.9MSubject to VARI A · 87 / 100
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§ 08Scenario Analysis

Three complete valuation runs under distinct assumption sets.

Each case is a complete valuation under a distinct assumption set: conservative growth and margin (Bear), industry-blended (Base), aggressive at the industry ceiling (Bull). The range reflects assumption uncertainty, not methodology variance.

Bear
$5.8M
Base
$6.9M
Bull
$8.7M
Scenario commentary · assumption sets
ScenarioEquity value GrowthEBITDA margin Commentary
Bear$5.8M2.2%30.6%Conservative growth and margin. Floor a disciplined buyer would underwrite at close.
Base$6.9M3.0%39.8%Margin sits 31.8pp above the 8.0% industry midpoint. At this stage, a 2pp margin improvement adds more enterprise value than a 10% revenue lift.
Bull$8.6M3.4%44.6%Margin holds at the industry ceiling; growth normalizes mid-cycle. Implies $18.0M equity value over five years.

§ 09Asset-Based Floors

What the business is worth if the operating thesis fails.

Three asset-based floors: liquidation (forced sale of working capital plus hard assets), adjusted book (orderly wind-down at market value), and going concern (replacement cost of the asset base). Equity values above any floor confirm the operating thesis is doing more than holding assets.

Asset-based floor scenarios
Floor scenarioValue
Liquidation · distressed$0
Adjusted book · orderly$147K
Going concern$532K

§ 10Risk Factors

Conditions identified during this engagement that bear on the result.

Engagement risk register
SeverityFromCondition
Observation DCF Revenue dispersion of ±32% (3-year σ/μ) — above the 18% sector norm. Forecast confidence reduced accordingly.
Caution DCF EBITDA margin rose from 5.4% to 25.3% over the year — a 4.7× expansion. The forecast anchors closer to industry-typical margins than to most-recent-year data, reflecting concern that the step-up may not persist.
Material Comps Zero peers met the inclusion threshold. The Comparable Companies engine was excluded from the blend; weight redistributed to DCF and Precedent.
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§ 11Financial Statements

Income statement.

Income statement · FY 2022 / 2024 / 2025
Line itemFY 2022FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$5.7M$10.3M$6.0M
Cost of goods sold$4.2M$8.6M$3.3M
Gross profit$1.5M$1.7M$2.7M
Operating expenses$516K$1.2M$1.2M
Depreciation & amortization$47K$1K$1K
Operating income$977K$561K$1.5M
EBITDA$1.0M$562K$1.5M
Interest expense$0$2
Net income$1.1M$561K$1.6M

Balance sheet.

Balance sheet · FY 2024 / 2025
Line itemFY 2024FY 2025
Cash & equivalents$608K$1.4M
Accounts receivable$77K$139K
Inventory$1.1M$2.4M
Total current assets$1.8M$3.7M
Property, plant & equipment$253K$219K
Total assets$2.7M$4.3M
Accounts payable$237K$578K
Short-term debt$104K$354K
Total liabilities$2.6M$3.3M
Total equity$21K$1.0M

Estimated cash flow.

Estimated cash flow · derived from income statement and balance sheet
Line item202220242025
Revenue$5.7M$10.3M$6.0M
EBITDA$1.0M$562K$1.5M
Less: taxes($256K)($140K)($382K)
Plus: D&A add-back$47K$1K$1K
Less: capital expenditure($951K)($2K)($1K)
Less: working-capital change$0$0$0
Free cash flow$815K$420K$1.1M

Cash flow derived from income statement and balance sheet inputs. Where periodic EBITDA, D&A, capital expenditure, or working-capital movements were not supplied, the engine imputed from trailing ratios. Methodology: § 07.

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§ 12Document Appendix

Source materials supplied by engagement holder.

Documents on file
DocumentFiled
Tax return · FY 20242026-05-30
Tax return · FY 20252026-05-30
Profit & loss · FY 20222026-05-30
Statement of operations · FY 20242026-05-30
Statement of operations · FY 20252026-05-30
Balance sheet · FY 20242026-05-30
Balance sheet · FY 20252026-05-30

§ 13Data Sources

External data referenced during this engagement.

Comparable Companies — 0 of 4 candidate peers met the inclusion threshold. Source pool: public-market data, third-party private-market data, VA Index sector slice for NAICS 236118.

Precedent Transactions — 6 of 7 candidate deals included in the median. Source pool: third-party deal databases, private-market marketplaces, registered business brokers. One deal excluded for incomplete EV reporting.

Nature of Estimate

This memo is an estimate of enterprise value. It does not constitute investment advice, a fairness opinion, or a recommendation to buy or sell securities.

Data Sources

Estimates derive from public market data, third-party private-market data, user-provided financial statements, and Value Alpha proprietary analytical models. Actual transaction values may differ materially.

Use Restrictions

Value Alpha is a valuation platform, not a registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, or CPA firm. Users should consult qualified financial professionals before making investment decisions.