VALUE ALPHA · VALUATION MEMO · ENGAGEMENT REF · VA-26-0530CONFIDENTIAL
VA · NWCH · NAICS 236118
NWCH
Northwind Custom Homes
VA · VA RANGEAS OF MAY 30 2026
Bear$5.8M
Base$6.9M
Bull$8.7M
§ 01Company Snapshot
What the business is, in one paragraph.
Residential custom-home builder and remodeler, established 2009. Primary and second-home clientele across a Mountain West resort region. Operates from a single owned office and shop.
Industry
NAICS 236118 · Residential Remodelers
Business Type
B2B
Revenue Model
Service
Recurrence
Project-based
Delivery
Service · Field
Geography
United States · Mountain West
§ 02Football Field
Per-engine value ranges, blended into the headline VA Range.
$5.3M$6.9M$8.5M$10.1M$11.8M
DCF
Precedent
VA Range
VALUE ALPHA · NORTHWIND CUSTOM HOMES · VALUATION MEMOMAY 30 2026
§ 03DCF
Five-year free-cash-flow projection at the stated WACC.
DCF projects unlevered free cash flow over five years, discounts to present value at the stated WACC, and adds a terminal value computed by the Gordon Growth method. Result is enterprise value; net debt is subtracted to derive equity value.
Growth · Y1
3.0%
EBITDA Margin
25.3%
WACC
18.0%
Terminal Growth
2.5%
DCF · enterprise to equity value
Line item
Value
PV of forecast FCF
$3.9M
PV of terminal value
$3.9M
Enterprise value
$7.8M
Less: net debt
($1.0M)
Equity value
$8.8M
DCF range across sensitivity bands: $6.5M to $11.5M.
§ 04Operating Performance
Revenue, costs, and EBITDA margin · 2023 – 2030.
RevenueCostsEBITDA Margin
Source: company financials FY 2023–25; engine forecast FY 2026–30.
Forecast · base case · 2026 – 2030
Metric
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
Revenue
$6.2M
$6.4M
$6.6M
$6.8M
$7.0M
Growth
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
EBITDA margin
25.3%
25.3%
25.3%
25.3%
25.3%
EBITDA
$1.6M
$1.6M
$1.7M
$1.7M
$1.8M
Costs
$4.6M
$4.8M
$4.9M
$5.1M
$5.2M
Free cash flow
$1.2M
$1.2M
$1.3M
$1.3M
$1.3M
VALUE ALPHA · NORTHWIND CUSTOM HOMES · VALUATION MEMOMAY 30 2026
§ 05Comparable Companies
Engine excluded from this engagement.
Zero peers met the inclusion threshold (≥50% NAICS overlap, revenue within ±2× of the subject, public reporting within 18 months). The Comparable Companies engine was excluded from the blend; weight was redistributed to DCF and Precedent. Engine returns to scope when the next VA Index sector slice (236118 · Residential Remodelers) publishes on the first Tuesday of June.
§ 06Precedent Transactions
Six private-market deals; median multiple applied.
Median EV/EBITDA across six recent deals in NAICS 236118 and adjacent residential-builder codes: 5.4×. Applied to current-year EBITDA of $1.5M, this produces an implied enterprise value of $6.6M, before applying the standard 12% liquidity discount.
Recent comparable transactions
Target
Acquirer
EV / Rev
EV / EBITDA
Date
Source
Lead-generation contractor
Private
1.1×
3.7×
2026-04-26
Marketplace
Luxury waterfront builder
Private
1.8×
4.8×
2026-04-26
Marketplace
Lead-generation contractor
Private
1.1×
3.7×
2026-05-03
Marketplace
Luxury waterfront builder
Private
1.8×
5.8×
2026-05-03
Marketplace
Residential builder · TX
Regional group
1.1×
10.4×
2025-01-10
Third-party
Energy-efficient builder · 15yr
Private
0.4×
—
2026-04-28
Marketplace
§ 07Methodology
Engine weights and rationale.
Engines are weighted by data quality, peer availability, and industry fit. The blended midpoint is the weighted average of each engine's midpoint estimate.
Engine weights · this engagement
Methodology
Weight
Implied value
Note
Discounted Cash Flow
57.1%
$8.8M
5-year projection · WACC 18.0% · TGR 2.5%
Precedent Transactions
42.9%
$6.4M
Median 5.4× EV/EBITDA across six deals
Blended enterprise value
100.0%
$6.9M
Subject to VARI A · 87 / 100
VALUE ALPHA · NORTHWIND CUSTOM HOMES · VALUATION MEMOMAY 30 2026
§ 08Scenario Analysis
Three complete valuation runs under distinct assumption sets.
Each case is a complete valuation under a distinct assumption set: conservative growth and margin (Bear), industry-blended (Base), aggressive at the industry ceiling (Bull). The range reflects assumption uncertainty, not methodology variance.
Bear
$5.8M
Base
$6.9M
Bull
$8.7M
Scenario commentary · assumption sets
Scenario
Equity value
Growth
EBITDA margin
Commentary
Bear
$5.8M
2.2%
30.6%
Conservative growth and margin. Floor a disciplined buyer would underwrite at close.
Base
$6.9M
3.0%
39.8%
Margin sits 31.8pp above the 8.0% industry midpoint. At this stage, a 2pp margin improvement adds more enterprise value than a 10% revenue lift.
Bull
$8.6M
3.4%
44.6%
Margin holds at the industry ceiling; growth normalizes mid-cycle. Implies $18.0M equity value over five years.
§ 09Asset-Based Floors
What the business is worth if the operating thesis fails.
Three asset-based floors: liquidation (forced sale of working capital plus hard assets), adjusted book (orderly wind-down at market value), and going concern (replacement cost of the asset base). Equity values above any floor confirm the operating thesis is doing more than holding assets.
Asset-based floor scenarios
Floor scenario
Value
Liquidation · distressed
$0
Adjusted book · orderly
$147K
Going concern
$532K
§ 10Risk Factors
Conditions identified during this engagement that bear on the result.
Engagement risk register
Severity
From
Condition
oObservation
DCF
Revenue dispersion of ±32% (3-year σ/μ) — above the 18% sector norm. Forecast confidence reduced accordingly.
!Caution
DCF
EBITDA margin rose from 5.4% to 25.3% over the year — a 4.7× expansion. The forecast anchors closer to industry-typical margins than to most-recent-year data, reflecting concern that the step-up may not persist.
×Material
Comps
Zero peers met the inclusion threshold. The Comparable Companies engine was excluded from the blend; weight redistributed to DCF and Precedent.
VALUE ALPHA · NORTHWIND CUSTOM HOMES · VALUATION MEMOMAY 30 2026
§ 11Financial Statements
Income statement.
Income statement · FY 2022 / 2024 / 2025
Line item
FY 2022
FY 2024
FY 2025
Revenue
$5.7M
$10.3M
$6.0M
Cost of goods sold
$4.2M
$8.6M
$3.3M
Gross profit
$1.5M
$1.7M
$2.7M
Operating expenses
$516K
$1.2M
$1.2M
Depreciation & amortization
$47K
$1K
$1K
Operating income
$977K
$561K
$1.5M
EBITDA
$1.0M
$562K
$1.5M
Interest expense
—
$0
$2
Net income
$1.1M
$561K
$1.6M
Balance sheet.
Balance sheet · FY 2024 / 2025
Line item
FY 2024
FY 2025
Cash & equivalents
$608K
$1.4M
Accounts receivable
$77K
$139K
Inventory
$1.1M
$2.4M
Total current assets
$1.8M
$3.7M
Property, plant & equipment
$253K
$219K
Total assets
$2.7M
$4.3M
Accounts payable
$237K
$578K
Short-term debt
$104K
$354K
Total liabilities
$2.6M
$3.3M
Total equity
$21K
$1.0M
Estimated cash flow.
Estimated cash flow · derived from income statement and balance sheet
Line item
2022
2024
2025
Revenue
$5.7M
$10.3M
$6.0M
EBITDA
$1.0M
$562K
$1.5M
Less: taxes
($256K)
($140K)
($382K)
Plus: D&A add-back
$47K
$1K
$1K
Less: capital expenditure
($951K)
($2K)
($1K)
Less: working-capital change
$0
$0
$0
Free cash flow
$815K
$420K
$1.1M
Cash flow derived from income statement and balance sheet inputs. Where periodic EBITDA, D&A, capital expenditure, or working-capital movements were not supplied, the engine imputed from trailing ratios. Methodology: § 07.
VALUE ALPHA · NORTHWIND CUSTOM HOMES · VALUATION MEMOMAY 30 2026
§ 12Document Appendix
Source materials supplied by engagement holder.
Documents on file
Document
Filed
Tax return · FY 2024
2026-05-30
Tax return · FY 2025
2026-05-30
Profit & loss · FY 2022
2026-05-30
Statement of operations · FY 2024
2026-05-30
Statement of operations · FY 2025
2026-05-30
Balance sheet · FY 2024
2026-05-30
Balance sheet · FY 2025
2026-05-30
§ 13Data Sources
External data referenced during this engagement.
Comparable Companies — 0 of 4 candidate peers met the inclusion threshold. Source pool: public-market data, third-party private-market data, VA Index sector slice for NAICS 236118.
Precedent Transactions — 6 of 7 candidate deals included in the median. Source pool: third-party deal databases, private-market marketplaces, registered business brokers. One deal excluded for incomplete EV reporting.
Nature of Estimate
This memo is an estimate of enterprise value. It does not constitute investment advice, a fairness opinion, or a recommendation to buy or sell securities.
Data Sources
Estimates derive from public market data, third-party private-market data, user-provided financial statements, and Value Alpha proprietary analytical models. Actual transaction values may differ materially.
Use Restrictions
Value Alpha is a valuation platform, not a registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, or CPA firm. Users should consult qualified financial professionals before making investment decisions.